Evidence Ledger - an auditable autonomous practice-trading agent

New here? One minute. An AI agent trades 10,000 USD of paper money on BTC, ETH and SOL every 30 minutes. A bull agent and a bear agent argue from cited evidence, a judge decides, and every decision stores a counterfactual (which evidence, removed, would have changed it). The whole trail is public, hash-chained, replayable and anchored in Bitcoin.
  1. Press Verify the whole chain below, then tamper buttons 1 to 3 (edits a copy in your tab only).
  2. Read Decisions where the evidence was decisive for cause and effect.
  3. Open an exhibit under a decision: the same records as a self-verifying document for an auditor or court.
  4. Optional, on your machine: python3 -m evidence_ledger audit (chain + replay + Bitcoin anchors, exit 0).
77 s video · 3.7 min narrated video · 10-slide deck · bounty-to-evidence map · source (MIT). Honest result: no predictive edge demonstrated (see Backtest); the point is auditability.
Cycles608
Equity (start 10,000)10,008.25 (+0.08%)
Buy-and-hold BTC9,065.53 (-9.34%)
Open positions3
Trades29
Strategy version5
Chain verifiedyes
Last update2026-11-02 23:30 UTC
Anchors (Bitcoin, OpenTimestamps)record 34213, 2026-11-02 23:00 UTC: pending (waiting for a Bitcoin block) proof
257 anchors, 256 confirmed
Chain head hash0b83486f2e32231b6ab19418904a5719c48978011177e9906687009e49e7332b

Verify the chain in your browser

Nothing is uploaded: the page downloads trail.jsonl and recomputes every SHA-256 locally (hash of each line, link to the previous record, sequence). This checks integrity; replay (below) additionally re-derives every decision.

Press a button. Buttons 1-3 edit a copy held in this tab only; the server file is never touched.

Equity vs buy-and-hold BTC

9,0389,2879,5369,78510,0342026-10-21 15:21 UTC2026-11-02 23:30 UTC

━ Agent equity (practice)   ┄ Buy-and-hold BTC   dotted: 10,000 start

Open positions

AssetSideQtyEntryMarkUnrealised PnL
BTCshort0.01425280,041.1276,599.9549.04
ETHshort0.6523832,257.352,246.557.05
SOLshort15.48570396.2791.7270.46

Decisions where the evidence was decisive

The three most recent decisions in which removing one evidence group would have flipped the action (for example open to hold). Cause: the cited evidence and what removing it would change. Effect: the risk check, the practice trade and the price move that followed. Each is re-derived by replay; the price moves are descriptive, not a claim of skill.

ETH: hold score -0.104, seq 32054 - python -m evidence_ledger explain 32054 --trail trail.jsonl

Causal path (record seqs): evidence (seq 32016, 32017, 32018, 32024, 32029, 32032, 32033) -> arguments (seq 32047, 32048, 32051) -> decision (seq 32054) -> risk check (seq 32057) -> practice trade (seq none). Open the self-verifying exhibit (json).

Evidence group removedScore without itChangeDecision without itFlips?
close-0.104+0.000holdno
funding_rate-0.310-0.207holdno
news_sentiment0.309+0.413closeYES
ret_24h-0.206-0.103holdno
volume_ratio-0.104+0.000holdno

What happened next: ETH price after the decision: 1 h later -0.70%, 3 h later -1.12%, 6 h later -0.83%.

ETH: hold score -0.083, seq 32006 - python -m evidence_ledger explain 32006 --trail trail.jsonl

Causal path (record seqs): evidence (seq 31968, 31969, 31970, 31976, 31981, 31984, 31985) -> arguments (seq 31999, 32000, 32003) -> decision (seq 32006) -> risk check (seq 32009) -> practice trade (seq none). Open the self-verifying exhibit (json).

Evidence group removedScore without itChangeDecision without itFlips?
close-0.083+0.000holdno
funding_rate-0.323-0.240holdno
news_sentiment0.330+0.413closeYES
ret_24h-0.173-0.090holdno
volume_ratio-0.083+0.000holdno

What happened next: ETH price after the decision: 1 h later +0.01%, 3 h later -0.95%, 6 h later -0.57%.

ETH: hold score -0.456, seq 30066 - python -m evidence_ledger explain 30066 --trail trail.jsonl

Causal path (record seqs): evidence (seq 30022, 30023, 30024, 30030, 30035, 30037, 30042, 30045) -> arguments (seq 30059, 30060, 30063) -> decision (seq 30066) -> risk check (seq 30069) -> practice trade (seq none). Open the self-verifying exhibit (json).

Evidence group removedScore without itChangeDecision without itFlips?
close-0.456+0.000holdno
funding_rate-0.679-0.223holdno
news_sentiment0.301+0.757closeYES
ret_24h-0.534-0.078holdno
volume_ratio-0.456+0.000holdno

What happened next: ETH price after the decision: 1 h later -0.25%, 3 h later -0.29%, 6 h later -0.24%.

Using this as evidence: decision exhibits and the one-command audit

Each decision above links to an exhibit: one page holding the exact hash-chained records of that decision (evidence, arguments, decision, risk check, trade) plus the chain up to the next Bitcoin-timestamped hash. A regulator, auditor or counterparty can verify it in the browser or with python3 -m evidence_ledger exhibit-verify 2329.json (standard library only) without the operator and without the 5 MB trail. It shows what the agent recorded and when; it does not show that a data source was truthful, and it is not legal advice.

The whole check in one command, same verdict for everyone (prints the SHA-256 of the trail and of the code that ran): git clone https://gitlab.com/evidence-ledger-agent/evidence-ledger && cd evidence-ledger && python3 -m evidence_ledger audit (hash chain, replay of every decision, Bitcoin anchors; exit 0 = pass).

Why this decision (latest cycle)

For each decision the judge was re-run with one group of evidence removed at a time (strategy V3 and later). Replay re-derives these tables too.

SOL: hold score -1.000, seq 34275 - python -m evidence_ledger explain 34275 --trail trail.jsonl
Evidence group removedScore without itChangeDecision without itFlips?
close-1.000+0.000holdno
news_sentiment-0.256+0.744holdno
ret_24h-0.744+0.256holdno
volume_ratio-0.913+0.087holdno
ETH: hold score -0.390, seq 34274 - python -m evidence_ledger explain 34274 --trail trail.jsonl
Evidence group removedScore without itChangeDecision without itFlips?
news_sentiment0.000+0.390holdno
voice_stance-0.390+0.000holdno
BTC: hold score -1.625, seq 34273 - python -m evidence_ledger explain 34273 --trail trail.jsonl
Evidence group removedScore without itChangeDecision without itFlips?
close-1.625+0.000holdno
news_sentiment-1.197+0.429holdno
ret_24h-1.429+0.197holdno
voice_stance-0.625+1.000holdno
volume_ratio-1.545+0.081holdno

Backtest: did the reasoning match what happened next?

At 3 h the score pointed the right way in 49% of 1544 directional decisions (95% CI 46-51%; always-long on the same sample: 48%; 260 independent windows: 49%). Over the window BTC -9.25%, ETH -10.22%, SOL -14.89%; 396 of 1824 decisions leaned long. No demonstrated predictive edge.

Computed from this trail when the page was built; the full report (replay-verified, with the evidence-group and trade tables) is python -m evidence_ledger backtest trail.jsonl. Overlapping windows: read the independent column, not n.

HorizonnHit rate95% CIAlways longMean signed returnIndependent n / hit
1 h155650%47-52%49%-0.3 bps777 / 51%
3 h154449%46-51%48%-2.0 bps260 / 49%
6 h152646%44-49%46%-9.7 bps127 / 46%
12 h149046%44-49%44%-7.0 bps65 / 48%

Calibration at 3 h: does a larger |score| mean a better outcome?

|score|nHit rate95% CI
0.00-0.1519252%45-59%
0.15-0.3040249%44-54%
0.30-0.4525547%41-53%
0.45+69548%44-52%

Cause and effect per evidence group at 3 h (right = price moved the way the group pushed the score).

Evidence groupPushesRightWrongHit rate
news_sentiment107150356647%
voice_stance72036635451%
ret_24h55623532142%
funding_rate33019413659%
volume_ratio28712716044%
whale_btc_out157847%

Narrative convergence: independent voices (latest cycle)

Voice (public outlet)BTC toneETH toneSOL tone
rss:ambcrypto-0.67 (3 headlines)+0.00 (1 headlines)+0.00 (2 headlines)
rss:beincrypto-0.50 (2 headlines)--
rss:bitcoinmagazine+0.00 (4 headlines)--
rss:bitcoinnews-0.25 (4 headlines)-1.00 (1 headlines)-
rss:coindesk-0.33 (9 headlines)--
rss:cointelegraph-0.37 (9 headlines, urgent)--1.00 (2 headlines)
rss:cryptonews+0.33 (3 headlines)+0.00 (1 headlines)-
rss:cryptopotato-0.12 (8 headlines)+0.50 (2 headlines)-
rss:cryptoslate-0.50 (4 headlines, urgent)+0.33 (3 headlines, urgent)-
rss:dailyhodl+0.00 (2 headlines)--
rss:decrypt+0.00 (3 headlines, urgent)+0.00 (1 headlines)-
rss:theblock-0.33 (4 headlines)-1.00 (1 headlines)-
rss:utoday-0.50 (2 headlines)+0.00 (1 headlines)+0.00 (1 headlines)

BTC: 1 voice(s) lean positive, 8 negative, 4 neutral; ETH: 2 voice(s) lean positive, 2 negative, 4 neutral; SOL: 0 voice(s) lean positive, 1 negative, 2 neutral. Two or more voices on the same side add a convergence argument (strategy V5). Voices are public RSS outlets, not X accounts: no X/Discord/Telegram API access is used.

Last 50 decisions (newest first)

SOL hold score -1.000, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 23:30 UTC, seq 34275

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.00 = -1.00, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.74] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.52 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.26] SOL fell 2.83% in 24h on volume 1.23x the prior average, so sellers are in control, favouring further downside

ETH hold score -0.390, conviction 0.39, 2026-11-02 23:30 UTC, seq 34274

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.68 = -0.39, conviction 0.39 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.39] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.27 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.42), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.625, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 23:30 UTC, seq 34273

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.63 = -1.63, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, theblock, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.43), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.43] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.30 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.20] BTC fell 2.08% in 24h on volume 1.21x the prior average, so sellers are in control, favouring further downside

SOL hold score -0.935, conviction 0.94, 2026-11-02 23:00 UTC, seq 34209

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.94 = -0.94, conviction 0.94 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.75] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.53 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.18] SOL fell 1.74% in 24h on volume 1.23x the prior average, so sellers are in control, favouring further downside

ETH hold score -0.400, conviction 0.40, 2026-11-02 23:00 UTC, seq 34208

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.69 = -0.40, conviction 0.40 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.40] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.28 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.42), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.435, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 23:00 UTC, seq 34207

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.44 = -1.44, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, theblock, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.39), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.44] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.30 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.954, conviction 0.95, 2026-11-02 22:30 UTC, seq 34144

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.95 = -0.95, conviction 0.95 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.75] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.53 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.20] SOL fell 2.06% in 24h on volume 1.22x the prior average, so sellers are in control, favouring further downside

ETH hold score -0.400, conviction 0.40, 2026-11-02 22:30 UTC, seq 34143

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.69 = -0.40, conviction 0.40 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.40] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.28 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.42), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.435, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 22:30 UTC, seq 34142

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.44 = -1.44, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, theblock, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.38), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.44] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.30 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -1.000, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 22:00 UTC, seq 34078

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.00 = -1.00, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.78] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.55 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.22] SOL fell 2.28% in 24h on volume 1.23x the prior average, so sellers are in control, favouring further downside

ETH hold score -0.427, conviction 0.43, 2026-11-02 22:00 UTC, seq 34077

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.72 = -0.43, conviction 0.43 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.43] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.30 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.42), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.572, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 22:00 UTC, seq 34076

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.57 = -1.57, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 9 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, theblock, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.40), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.57] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.40 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -1.047, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 21:30 UTC, seq 34013

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.05 = -1.05, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.79] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.55 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.26] SOL fell 2.98% in 24h on volume 1.20x the prior average, so sellers are in control, favouring further downside

ETH hold score -0.437, conviction 0.44, 2026-11-02 21:30 UTC, seq 34012

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.73 = -0.44, conviction 0.44 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.44] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.30 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.589, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 21:30 UTC, seq 34011

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.59 = -1.59, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 9 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, theblock, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.41), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.59] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.41 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.947, conviction 0.95, 2026-11-02 21:00 UTC, seq 33948

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.95 = -0.95, conviction 0.95 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.77] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.54 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.18] SOL fell 2.97% in 24h but on volume only 1.17x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.414, conviction 0.41, 2026-11-02 21:00 UTC, seq 33947

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.71 = -0.41, conviction 0.41 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.41] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.29 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.653, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 21:00 UTC, seq 33946

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.65 = -1.65, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 9 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, theblock, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.41), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.57] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.40 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.08] BTC fell 1.56% in 24h but on volume only 1.07x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

SOL hold score -0.915, conviction 0.91, 2026-11-02 20:30 UTC, seq 33881

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.91 = -0.91, conviction 0.91 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.75] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.53 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.16] SOL fell 2.71% in 24h but on volume only 1.15x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.400, conviction 0.40, 2026-11-02 20:30 UTC, seq 33880

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.69 = -0.40, conviction 0.40 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.40] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.28 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.565, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 20:30 UTC, seq 33879

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.56 = -1.56, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 9 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, theblock, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.44), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.56] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.39 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.919, conviction 0.92, 2026-11-02 20:00 UTC, seq 33816

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.92 = -0.92, conviction 0.92 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.76] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.53 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.16] SOL fell 2.70% in 24h but on volume only 1.06x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.405, conviction 0.41, 2026-11-02 20:00 UTC, seq 33815

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.70 = -0.41, conviction 0.41 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.41] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.28 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.568, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 20:00 UTC, seq 33814

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.57 = -1.57, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.45), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.57] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.40 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.893, conviction 0.89, 2026-11-02 19:30 UTC, seq 33751

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.89 = -0.89, conviction 0.89 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.74] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.52 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.15] SOL fell 2.62% in 24h but on volume only 1.00x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.385, conviction 0.38, 2026-11-02 19:30 UTC, seq 33750

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.68 = -0.38, conviction 0.38 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.38] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.27 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.557, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 19:30 UTC, seq 33749

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.56 = -1.56, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.42), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.56] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.39 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.853, conviction 0.85, 2026-11-02 19:00 UTC, seq 33685

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.85 = -0.85, conviction 0.85 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.73] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.51 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.13] SOL fell 2.24% in 24h but on volume only 1.01x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.371, conviction 0.37, 2026-11-02 19:00 UTC, seq 33684

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.66 = -0.37, conviction 0.37 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.37] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.26 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.526, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 19:00 UTC, seq 33683

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.53 = -1.53, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.41), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.53] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.37 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.836, conviction 0.84, 2026-11-02 18:30 UTC, seq 33620

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.84 = -0.84, conviction 0.84 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.71] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.49 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.13] SOL fell 2.27% in 24h but on volume only 0.99x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.352, conviction 0.35, 2026-11-02 18:30 UTC, seq 33619

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.64 = -0.35, conviction 0.35 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.35] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.24 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.513, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 18:30 UTC, seq 33618

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.51 = -1.51, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.41), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.51] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.36 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.890, conviction 0.89, 2026-11-02 18:00 UTC, seq 33554

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.89 = -0.89, conviction 0.89 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.73] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.51 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.16] SOL fell 2.68% in 24h but on volume only 0.99x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.378, conviction 0.38, 2026-11-02 18:00 UTC, seq 33553

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.67 = -0.38, conviction 0.38 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.38] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.26 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.540, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 18:00 UTC, seq 33552

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.54 = -1.54, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.41), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.54] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.38 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.852, conviction 0.85, 2026-11-02 17:30 UTC, seq 33489

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.85 = -0.85, conviction 0.85 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.75] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.52 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.10] SOL fell 1.85% in 24h but on volume only 0.92x the prior average (unconfirmed), so sellers are in control, favouring further downside with less force

ETH hold score -0.397, conviction 0.40, 2026-11-02 17:30 UTC, seq 33488

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.69 = -0.40, conviction 0.40 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.40] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.27 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.553, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 17:30 UTC, seq 33487

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.55 = -1.55, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.42), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.55] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.38 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.782, conviction 0.78, 2026-11-02 17:00 UTC, seq 33423

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.78 = -0.78, conviction 0.78 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.78] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.55 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand

ETH hold score -0.428, conviction 0.43, 2026-11-02 17:00 UTC, seq 33422

ETH (short): bull 0.29 - bear 0.72 = -0.43, conviction 0.43 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.43] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.30 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bull 0.29] 2 independent voices (cryptopotato, cryptoslate) converge on a positive view of ETH (mean tone +0.50), so narrative momentum is building behind it

BTC hold score -1.573, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 17:00 UTC, seq 33421

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.57 = -1.57, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 1.00] 8 independent voices (ambcrypto, beincrypto, bitcoinnews, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate, decrypt, utoday) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.42), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.57] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.40 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.772, conviction 0.77, 2026-11-02 16:30 UTC, seq 33360

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.77 = -0.77, conviction 0.77 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.77] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.54 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand

ETH hold score -0.710, conviction 0.71, 2026-11-02 16:30 UTC, seq 33359

ETH (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.71 = -0.71, conviction 0.71 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.42] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.29 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading

BTC hold score -1.024, conviction 1.00, 2026-11-02 16:30 UTC, seq 33358

BTC (short): bull 0.00 - bear 1.02 = -1.02, conviction 1.00 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.57] 4 independent voices (beincrypto, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.36), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.45] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.31 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand

SOL hold score -0.772, conviction 0.77, 2026-11-02 16:00 UTC, seq 33297

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.77 = -0.77, conviction 0.77 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.77] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.54 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand

ETH hold score -0.847, conviction 0.85, 2026-11-02 16:00 UTC, seq 33296

ETH (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.85 = -0.85, conviction 0.85 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.56] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.39 over 3 feed items), weighing on demand; [bear 0.29] 2 independent voices (bitcoinnews, theblock) converge on a negative view of ETH (mean tone -1.00), so a bearish narrative is spreading

BTC hold score -0.591, conviction 0.59, 2026-11-02 16:00 UTC, seq 33295

BTC (short): bull 0.43 - bear 1.02 = -0.59, conviction 0.59 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.57] 4 independent voices (beincrypto, coindesk, cointelegraph, cryptoslate) converge on a negative view of BTC (mean tone -0.36), so a bearish narrative is spreading; [bear 0.45] News tone for BTC is negative (mean -0.31 over 6 feed items), weighing on demand; [bull 0.43] 3 independent voices (bitcoinmagazine, cryptonews, utoday) converge on a positive view of BTC (mean tone +0.61), so narrative momentum is building behind it

SOL hold score -0.762, conviction 0.76, 2026-11-02 15:30 UTC, seq 33236

SOL (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.76 = -0.76, conviction 0.76 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.76] News tone for SOL is negative (mean -0.53 over 4 feed items), weighing on demand

ETH hold score -0.541, conviction 0.54, 2026-11-02 15:30 UTC, seq 33235

ETH (short): bull 0.00 - bear 0.54 = -0.54, conviction 0.54 -> hold. Top: [bear 0.54] News tone for ETH is negative (mean -0.38 over 3 feed items), weighing on demand

Last 20 trades

TimeAssetActionQtyPriceFeeReason
2026-10-30 12:00 UTCSOLopen short15.48570396.271.49decision
2026-10-30 11:00 UTCSOLclose long11.33388097.001.10decision
2026-10-30 05:30 UTCSOLopen long11.33388097.831.11decision
2026-10-30 04:00 UTCSOLclose short13.89756996.861.35decision
2026-10-30 00:00 UTCSOLopen short13.89756995.401.33decision
2026-10-29 21:00 UTCETHopen short0.6523832,257.351.47decision
2026-10-29 19:30 UTCETHclose long0.4843632,327.401.13decision
2026-10-29 13:30 UTCBTCopen short0.01425280,041.121.14decision
2026-10-29 13:00 UTCBTCclose long0.01460979,917.601.17decision
2026-10-27 13:30 UTCETHopen long0.4843632,322.391.12decision
2026-10-27 11:30 UTCBTCopen long0.01460979,748.411.17decision
2026-10-27 11:00 UTCETHclose short0.5383192,312.071.24decision
2026-10-27 11:00 UTCBTCclose short0.01786779,816.231.43decision
2026-10-27 05:30 UTCBTCopen short0.01786779,652.411.42decision
2026-10-27 03:00 UTCBTCclose short0.01464379,677.431.17decision
2026-10-27 02:30 UTCBTCopen short0.01464379,830.231.17decision
2026-10-27 02:00 UTCBTCclose short0.01625979,914.411.30decision
2026-10-24 17:00 UTCBTCopen short0.01625980,136.121.30decision
2026-10-24 15:30 UTCBTCclose long0.01440979,290.161.14decision
2026-10-24 15:00 UTCETHopen short0.5383192,340.551.26decision